Bust Watch, Nov 13

New segment I’ll be attempting.  Every week, I’ll look at the movies coming out and rate them on a scale from 1 (bonafide boxoffice gold) to 5 (definite bust, executives getting fired) based on how likely I think it is that they’ll disappoint at the box office.

I’m not great at this.  I did predict John Carter busting, but also thought Frozen would be dead on arrival.  I’m also basing it largely off of how ofter I have seen the commercials and how I think they look, rather than any sort of market research.  I’ll also be sticking to wide releases, since an indie film releasing on 15 theaters nationwide has different expectations and advertising than a Michael Bay film.

The 33

The Chilean miner movie, just doesn’t seem like a fun movie to watch.  It doesn’t look scary, exciting, or even very inspiring since the stakes aren’t high due to everyone knowing the ending.  Apparently Antonio Banderas is in it, I didn’t realize that from any of the commercials.  The only character that is recognizable and sympathetic from the trailers is the one woman waiting defiantly outside, but we don’t even know her.  I think the lack of a clear lead among the miners is going to doom this movie.

Maybe the sentiment for this rescue is higher than I’m guessing, but it looks like it’s a few years too late to capture the huge buzz this rescue had and not good enough to stand on its own.  The movie looks cheap and sappy, so it may attract some who want a movie they know will have a happy ending, but I’m expecting a disappointment.

4/5 bust rating

My All American

I’ve seen maybe one or two commercials for this, but am guessing it’s being marketed much more to the college football crazy states.  I think Texas and SEC country will eat this sappy film up, and go watch some good team chemistry overcoming adversity on the football field.  Plus, I’m guessing they’ll have thrown in some religious themes, since the main character’s real life biography had the word “Faith” in the title, which should draw the religious crowds.

It’s from the writer of Rudy and Hoosiers, so it’ll get some nostalgia views to go along with the football, patriotism, and (probably) religion.  I think it’ll do well enough, though it won’t turn into a hit.

2/5 bust rating

Love the Coopers

Seriously, has anyone seen anything about this movie?  It’s from CBS Films, making me immediately think it’ll be shit thanks to their awful early films (though recent releases like Seven Psychopaths and Inside Llewyn Davis have been much better).  I have no idea how good this will be, though I assume it’ll be a shitty grab at holiday filmgoer money since it’s based around Christmas.

For a film I’ve never heard of, it has an absolutely loaded cast.  John Goodman, Diane Keaton, Amanda Seyfried, Olivia Wilde, Ed Helms, Alan Arkin, Marisa Tomei, Anthony Mackie, and a few other minor but known actors.  There’s someone for every Christmas loving demographic, and a dog is on the poster.  Maybe they feature it in the trailers, who knows.

The writer/director of I Am Sam is directing this, so I’m sure it’ll be sappy and borderline manipulative.  They’re likely advertising heavily during shitty CBS programming.  The only question is whether their 40+ audience will make it to the box office and not see Spectre.  I’m calling this a likely bust.

4/5 bust rating.

Update.  Watched the trailer.  There are charismatic old actors, a young couple faking love and almost certainly finding it by the end of the film (plus the guy is in the army), a kid saying sassy things with a reaction shot from the dog, and physical comedy involving old and/or fat people.  This movie is going to be a hit.  An awful, ensemble cast hit.

1/5 bust rating.