Bust Watch, November 27

I’m putting this up late, I’m sure the one person on the internet who stumbles upon this will accuse me of cheating with my predictions.  But if I really cared so much about being right on these, I would have changed the rating for Victor Frankenstein, which was a huge bust.  Should have trusted my gut, instead I got blinded by the star power.  Anyways, here are last week’s bust ratings.

Creed

Take a great movie franchise with a huge character arc from underdog to champ to symbol of America beating the Soviets, and relaunch it with a director coming off an incredible film in Fruitvale Station and a hot young actor in Michael B. Jordan who has a chance of pulling a Chris Evans and overcoming a shitty Fantastic Four movie, and you have what I think is going to be a surprisingly big hit.

The previous Rocky was a continuation that did well at the box office simply by continuing the story and not trying anything new.  There were video game references, a new young fighter that looked more like boxers today, but you were going to see it because you loved the original films (at least 4 of them, anyways).

Bust Watch, November 20th

The Night Before

This looks bad, right?  It has the feel of a less funny Neighbors (a shitty movie), or of the Vince Vaughn/Dave Franco movie Unfinished Business where the commercial doesn’t show any really funny bits or reasons you’d enjoy the story.  The former was a hit, the latter a bust.

The best thing going for this movie is the cast, no question.  Seth Rogen is gold, everybody likes Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Anthony Mackie is charismatic and becoming very recognizable, and Jillian Bell is funny as hell even if she is less known.  The cast alone makes this a no question hit, right?

I’m not sure.  The Apatow Syndrome characters are usually unappealing in non-Apatow films, and that seems to be the character Rogan is playing in this film.  The commercials rely on Rogen throwing up in church, a Home Alone joke, and Rogan tripping balls.  Do people still want to see this type of movie, where the commercial doesn’t have any huge laughs, especially during the holiday season?

The cast alone should make it a safe bet to do fairly well, but I don’t think it looks appealing enough or fresh enough to be a financial hit.

3/5 bust rating.

 

Secret in Their Eyes

Chiwetal Ejiofor in peak beard form, Julia Roberts not pulling off bangs for most of the trailer but still being charismatic, and Nicole Kidman not really seeming like she’s a big part of the film but still being there.  Big names, shitty looking revenge movie.

It just looks boring from the trailers.  We’ve seen this movie before, and we’ve seen it in movies that have looked much more interesting.  What is this movie going to have that is new or exciting?  It doesn’t look tense or exciting, simply melodramatic and familiar.  I have zero reason to want to see this film, and am not sure why anyone else would outside of the names, two of which aren’t huge draws by themselves and one (Roberts) who may not be a big draw anymore (when was the last movie she really drew people into theaters?  Charlie Wilson’s War?  Even earlier?).

4/5 bust rating

 

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay- Part 2

Let’s not overthink this.  It’s a monster movie franchise that knew people would pay to see two movies based off of one book that, from what I’ve heard, was pretty shitty.  They did the same thing for the Harry Potter and Twilight franchises, and I don’t recall either of those coming remotely close to busting.

There is a huge fan base, lots of star power, and the movies have been pretty well received by critics.  I’ve only seen the first, but was surprised at it being well directed and visually creative, even if the story sputters out and drags down the end of the film.  Not a chance in hell this busts, unless they start showing commercials that feature Bill Cosby in a supporting role.

1/5 bust rating.

Bust Watch, Nov 13

New segment I’ll be attempting.  Every week, I’ll look at the movies coming out and rate them on a scale from 1 (bonafide boxoffice gold) to 5 (definite bust, executives getting fired) based on how likely I think it is that they’ll disappoint at the box office.

I’m not great at this.  I did predict John Carter busting, but also thought Frozen would be dead on arrival.  I’m also basing it largely off of how ofter I have seen the commercials and how I think they look, rather than any sort of market research.  I’ll also be sticking to wide releases, since an indie film releasing on 15 theaters nationwide has different expectations and advertising than a Michael Bay film.

The 33

The Chilean miner movie, just doesn’t seem like a fun movie to watch.  It doesn’t look scary, exciting, or even very inspiring since the stakes aren’t high due to everyone knowing the ending.  Apparently Antonio Banderas is in it, I didn’t realize that from any of the commercials.  The only character that is recognizable and sympathetic from the trailers is the one woman waiting defiantly outside, but we don’t even know her.  I think the lack of a clear lead among the miners is going to doom this movie.

Maybe the sentiment for this rescue is higher than I’m guessing, but it looks like it’s a few years too late to capture the huge buzz this rescue had and not good enough to stand on its own.  The movie looks cheap and sappy, so it may attract some who want a movie they know will have a happy ending, but I’m expecting a disappointment.

4/5 bust rating

My All American

I’ve seen maybe one or two commercials for this, but am guessing it’s being marketed much more to the college football crazy states.  I think Texas and SEC country will eat this sappy film up, and go watch some good team chemistry overcoming adversity on the football field.  Plus, I’m guessing they’ll have thrown in some religious themes, since the main character’s real life biography had the word “Faith” in the title, which should draw the religious crowds.

It’s from the writer of Rudy and Hoosiers, so it’ll get some nostalgia views to go along with the football, patriotism, and (probably) religion.  I think it’ll do well enough, though it won’t turn into a hit.

2/5 bust rating

Love the Coopers

Seriously, has anyone seen anything about this movie?  It’s from CBS Films, making me immediately think it’ll be shit thanks to their awful early films (though recent releases like Seven Psychopaths and Inside Llewyn Davis have been much better).  I have no idea how good this will be, though I assume it’ll be a shitty grab at holiday filmgoer money since it’s based around Christmas.

For a film I’ve never heard of, it has an absolutely loaded cast.  John Goodman, Diane Keaton, Amanda Seyfried, Olivia Wilde, Ed Helms, Alan Arkin, Marisa Tomei, Anthony Mackie, and a few other minor but known actors.  There’s someone for every Christmas loving demographic, and a dog is on the poster.  Maybe they feature it in the trailers, who knows.

The writer/director of I Am Sam is directing this, so I’m sure it’ll be sappy and borderline manipulative.  They’re likely advertising heavily during shitty CBS programming.  The only question is whether their 40+ audience will make it to the box office and not see Spectre.  I’m calling this a likely bust.

4/5 bust rating.

Update.  Watched the trailer.  There are charismatic old actors, a young couple faking love and almost certainly finding it by the end of the film (plus the guy is in the army), a kid saying sassy things with a reaction shot from the dog, and physical comedy involving old and/or fat people.  This movie is going to be a hit.  An awful, ensemble cast hit.

1/5 bust rating.

Films you need to enjoy for me to take your film opinions seriously

What better way to continue my blog about movies and whatnot than with a pretentious post outlining movies you’ll need to enjoy if you don’t want me thinking you’re a complete buffoon who clearly doesn’t know the first thing about cinema.  I love the internet, where blasting someone’s opinion that differs from your own isn’t preposterous, it’s commonplace.

Obviously this is a silly exercise, as liking movies is more or less subjective, but the points I make about the films on this list are more about qualities a viewer should have.  The films discussed here are all excellent (with one possible exception), and liking them may require appreciating certain aspects of them, or not focusing on certain aspect.

This isn’t a list of obvious classics, especially since I can understand not enjoying some of those critically acclaimed works.  Citizen Kane may have had groundbreaking cinematography and a story structure that broke the old mold, but it isn’t the most enjoyable film I’ve ever seen, and those innovations have become less noticeable as cinema has used them and even improved upon them.  Schindler’s List is beautiful and pulls you in emotionally, but I couldn’t blame anyone who found the film to be too depressing for them to enjoy, since it is so emotionally draining.  And plenty of highly regarded films (especially comedies) simply don’t age well, either due to societal changes, technological advancements, or cinematic tastes evolving over time.