Bust Watch, November 27

I’m putting this up late, I’m sure the one person on the internet who stumbles upon this will accuse me of cheating with my predictions.  But if I really cared so much about being right on these, I would have changed the rating for Victor Frankenstein, which was a huge bust.  Should have trusted my gut, instead I got blinded by the star power.  Anyways, here are last week’s bust ratings.

Creed

Take a great movie franchise with a huge character arc from underdog to champ to symbol of America beating the Soviets, and relaunch it with a director coming off an incredible film in Fruitvale Station and a hot young actor in Michael B. Jordan who has a chance of pulling a Chris Evans and overcoming a shitty Fantastic Four movie, and you have what I think is going to be a surprisingly big hit.

The previous Rocky was a continuation that did well at the box office simply by continuing the story and not trying anything new.  There were video game references, a new young fighter that looked more like boxers today, but you were going to see it because you loved the original films (at least 4 of them, anyways).

This is new, while being a return to the first film as well.  A story centered around a guy at the bottom (like in the first Rocky) looking to prove the world wrong, receiving training from an older guy who sees something in him.  It has a more urban feel to it, with a black lead and that scene in the trailers where he’s running in front of motorbikes and atvs on the street.  But you still have the nods to the classic films, like chasing a chicken and putting Apollo Creed back in the story.

I wasn’t excited for the last Rocky.  I’m thrilled for this one.  I think everyone who is a Rocky fan will be as well, and it’ll attract a whole new audience that wouldn’t have watched another movie about a 69 year old boxer with a funny voice.  I’m expecting a big hit.

1/5 bust rating.

 

The Good Dinosaur

I mean, it’s Pixar.  It’s going to be well received by critics and do well at the box office.  It’ll have a story that appeals to kids and adults, and it’ll make the studio happy.

That said, does this look particularly good?  I get that dinosaurs are always appealing, and Jurassic World made them even cooler, but friendly T-Rexs and no signs of raptors (the coolest dinosaur) make me wonder how much it’ll capitalize on the dinosaur buzz.  The plot comes off as simple from the trailers, with the dinosaur and possibly human trying to find their way home, which would make this a simpler Pixar film than we’re used to.  There aren’t any great characters in the trailers, nor any hilarious jokes.

The main dinosaur will likely be relatable enough to make this a hit.  He’s nervous but with courage within, seemingly inept but kind, and will likely be a fan favorite with kids.  His ordinary appearance is plain, but cute.  How good he is will go a long way into the word of mouth for this movie.

I think it’ll do well, but nothing I’ve seen makes me guarantee it.

2/5 bust rating.

 

Victor Frankenstein

The oldschool monster in a modern movie has been done a few times recently.  Dracula Untold looked like a cool story that they’d probably butcher, yet did well in its worldwide numbers.  I, Frankenstein had Aaron Eckhart (is he not as marketable as I’d think?), but did poorly worldwide.  And the Underworld franchise has made 4 movies, all of which have been poorly received yet are presumably making enough money for sequels.

So these films can make money, even if they get bad reviews.  I’m not hopeful for how good this movie will be, so that’s a good thing.  The question is what happens when you get top notch actors to appear in one of these movies.  James McAvoy and Daniel Radcliffe are big names who should attract a decent audience on their own, thanks to starring in a pair of franchises.  Andrew Scott (Moriarty from Sherlock) and Charles Dance (Tywin Lannister from Game of Thrones) increase my interest.  And others in the cast have appeared on a decent amount of well-known movies or television shows.  Nobody on the Tom Cruise level of star, but some of the bigger name British actors with world-wide appeal.

The issue for me goes back to this just looking bad.  We don’t get any good shots of monsters from the trailers, or anything else to really excite us outside of the actors.  I don’t know what the story is about, outside of it having something to do with Frankenstein and Igor.  And why is this being released during November when it looks much more like a summer movie?

It’ll probably do fine at the box office, and get solid worldwide numbers thanks to its stars and monster-themed story, but I can just as easily see this getting a below $10 million opening in the US, and needing a big international push to justify that many stars in what looks like a low end film.

3/5 bust rating